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Horse Racing Strategy
Horse Racing is the biggest betting sport in the country with millions of dollars bet every day on runners. With racing on 363 days of the year it provides great opportunities for punters, however it can be a difficult sport to understand if you weren’t brought up around it. In this article we will run through both how to go about trying to find winners in different races and understanding how to “do the form” as well as how best to apply that to betting and try to make a profit from it.
Racecourse vs Racecourse
When betting on horse racing it’s important to understand that no 2 tracks are the same, so a horse who runs well on one track might not necessarily run well on another. You have to work out whether your horse has good form on the track it is racing on, or similar types of tracks.
Some tracks will also vary to extreme levels. Tracks such as Flemington and Moonee Valley in Victoria for example.
Both are city class tracks which host major meetings in the spring, but converting form from one track to the next is extremely hard given the shapes of each track and the way they play.
Moonee Valley is a tight track with a short straight that favours on-speed runners for the majority of the time, whereas Flemington is a very spacious track with a long straight and is generally a better track for horses coming from off the speed as they get plenty of clear running and lots of room in the straight to wind up. Form on a particular track is very important when trying to decide who to back.
Then there are also tracks that are run on a synthetic surface. A synthetic track is an artificial surface which allows racing to continue to take place under bad weather conditions as they hold up better than natural tracks.
Racing on synthetic tracks can be quite tricky to read at times, as some horses will thrive on them while others will show a distaste for them and will not perform to their best. It’s important when betting on tracks with a synthetic surface to use previous form on synthetic surfaces when doing the form.
Track Conditions
The weather and track rating for a meeting will typically have far more of an impact than many new punters will realise. A horse’s form can often fluctuate wildly between racing on a good rated track and on a soft or heavy track affected by rain.
Different horses react differently to different surfaces and it’s always important to use past runs on a wet track when doing wet track form for a meeting.
If a horse is having its first run on a soft or heavy surface it can be a bit of a guessing game as to whether they will handle it. In that scenario it is usually best to go off of the horses breeding and study how horses with similar breeding have handled these sort of conditions as it will often run in the family.
Weights & Handicaps
Some of Australia’s biggest races are run under handicap conditions, including the biggest of them all; the Melbourne Cup.
Learning about how much weight a horse has to carry is a vital part of learning how to study the form.
The role of the handicapper is to try to ensure each horse has a competitive chance of winning by allocating more weight to the better horses and less weight to the less talented horses to try to give every horse an equal chance of winning. Weights typically come with a limit though and for some horses it is impossible to give them a low enough weight to make them competitive against the more talented horses.
If horse A and horse B take each other on in a race and finish side by side at the end, but then next start horse B is meeting horse A 3kg better at the weights, odds are that horse B will be able to beat home horse A because of the weight advantage.
Some horses can carry weight better than others, whether that be due to their overall size difference or some horses just have a bit more fight or toughness in them to carry the big weights where others might spit the bit out once it gets a bit hard. Either way it’s important to understand how certain horses react to carrying different weights.
Going the Distance
The distance a race is run over can have a huge bearing on a horse’s result in any given race. A sprinter who is dominant over distances of 1000m-1200m will likely struggle when stepping up over long distances because of a lack of stamina. Likewise a horse who excels over longer distances of 2000m+ is most likely going to struggle over the shorter distances because it lacks the natural speed of horses who are sprinters.
It is important to recognise a horse’s form over the distance the race is being run at because good form over different distances doesn’t necessarily correlate to being good form for this particular race.
If a horse is untried over a particular distance it can be tricky to figure out whether or not the horse will be able to perform. Looking at things such as how the horse has performed previously over similar distances. If it has been strong through the line over shorter trips then there is a fair chance a step up in distance might suit.
A horse’s breeding can often be a good guide to how a horse will handle certain distances. If a horse is by a staying sire such as Zabeel you can expect that horse will lack speed but have good stamina and get better as the distances increase. Whereas a runner by a sprinting sire like Exceed and Excel may struggle when getting up in distance as it is bred mainly for speed.
Speed Maps & Pace of Race
Speed maps are used by punters to determine how a race will be run. They are used to try to calculate where each individual runner will settle in the run, as well as the pace at which the race will be run.
Speed maps aren’t just used by punters but also jockeys, trainers, stewards and anyone else who might want to gain a better understanding of how a race might be run.
They are an essential part of any punters arsenal, because if you can work out that there is very little pace in a race then you will want to be focusing most of your attention on those runners who will likely settle at the front of the field as they will get the best run in the race and make it almost impossible for the backmarkers to get into the race. Conversely if you can determine that there is a lot of speed in a race and there will be pressure at the front of the pack then you will usually be better off targeting backmarkers who will be able to sit off that pace and come home over the top.
Speed maps rely heavily on what happens inside the first furlong of a race. From the barriers opening until the horses find their settling position so the barrier a horse is jumping from can play a major part on where it will settle in the run. Some horses are more versatile than others as well in regards to where they can settle. You will find some horses are very one dimensional in where they like to settle during a race, but other more versatile horses who can race forward or back can make mapping a race a bit more difficult.
Understanding Class & Ratings
It’s important to remember when betting that races are run over all types of different classes and form out of one class might be much stronger than form out of another. An understanding of the different classes and ratings of races when trying to find a winner is important.
Class Races
Class ratings are more of an old school way of determining race classes but are still seen on the Provincial circuit. There are 6 types of class races ranging from Class 1 to Class 6. A Class 1 race is a race restricted to horses who have not won more than 1 race and this structure runs all the way through to Class 6 company where a horse must not have won more than 6 races to be eligible to start. So a horse who has won 3 races is eligible to start in a C3, C4, C5 or C6 race.
Ratings Band Races
Ratings based races such as 0-78 are a class of race run based on the rating score a horse is given based on past performances. Horse’s are eligible to run in races where their rating falls within the rating band of the race. A horse who enters a 0-78 rated race with a rating of 78 would receive the top weight for that race, while those with lesser ratings would receive weight relief equivalent to their rating.
Benchmark Racing
A style of classing found in NSW, benchmark racing is similar to the rating band class in that it uses are horses rating to determine what its class is. It is different from the rating band races seen across most of the country because it is not restrictive at the top end and allows higher ratings horses to run, so long as they are happy to carry more weight.
In a Benchmark 70 race a horse rated 70 would be given the starting top weight of 58kg. Horses then rated lower or higher than 70 are given either a 0.5kg penalty or allowance for each rating point over or under the benchmark of 70.
If a 5yo gelding who is rated 75 enters a BM70 race he would be allocated a weight of 60.5kg (2.5kg above the BM)
That is 0.5 kg x 5 (Rating points)
Similarly if a 5yo gelding with a rating of just 67 entered a BM70 race he would be allocated 56.5kg (1.5kg below the BM)
That is 0.5kg x 3 (Rating points)
Fillies and Mares are also given a 2kg allowance when taking on mixed races.
2yo & 3yo runners are given varying weight allowances when taking on older horses as well.
Group and Listed Class
Group and Listed races are the highest quality of races run in the country and contain the best class of horses. G1 is the highest level of class available for a horse to compete at followed by G2 then G3, with Listed class just behind that.
Weight for Age
A class of race where horses will carry a determined weight based on the WFA scale. Weights are varied depending on the horse’s age, sex and what time of the year the race is being run. It is generally seen as the most pure form of class and weighting as it is supposed to give each horse its equal chance and let the best horses win without being handicapped. These races are usually of Group class and contain the most high quality runners, such as in our premier WFA race the WS Cox Plate.
Different Bet Types
Win
If you like to keep things simple then Win betting is probably for you. Easily the most popular bet type as it simply requires the punter to bet on the runner they believe will win the race. It’s simplicity is no doubt what makes it the most popular bet type for both seasoned and beginner punters. Win betting markets are usually set to a more competitive market percentage (or take out percentage if betting with the TAB) than other bet types as well, making them a more appealing long term option.
Place
Still keeping things simple, Place betting is the second most popular bet type. It requires the punter to select a runner who will finish either 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the placings. It is a more favourable bet type for some punters because it gives you a greater chance of winning than just Win betting on a horse. Obviously because of this the Place betting odds are much shorter than the Win betting odds.
To win a on a Place bet your selected bet just has to finish either 1st, 2nd or 3rd so long as there are at least 8 runners in the field. If there are less than 8 runners in a field there will be no third dividend paid, meaning your selection will have to finish either 1st or 2nd to be a winning bet.
Each Way
Each Way betting is simply placing a bet on a horse to both win and place. If the horse wins you will receive your share of both the win and place dividend, but if the horse finishes 2nd or 3rd you will only receive your winnings from the place bet side of the wager. It is typically used as a bit of insurance for punters wanting to back a horse, but still get something back if it just misses out and runs in the placings.
Exotics
In the next section we will run through some of the “exotic” bet types. These are the more complex bet types that will require you to pick multiple horses to finish in the placings. They are typically bet types that have far greater dividends and give punters the chance to land a big collect for a small outlay.
Quinella
The simplest of the exotics is the Quinella as it requires the punter to simply select the 2 runners who will finish 1st and 2nd in the race, in any order.
Exacta
The Exata is very similar to the Quinella bet, with the only difference being that you must select the 1st and 2nd across the line in the correct order. The dividends are higher than the Quinella due to it being more difficult to select the runners in order.
Trifecta
We start to get into the more difficult exotics now with the Trifecta. A Trifecta bet requires a punter to select the 1st, 2nd and 3rd horse across the line in the correct order. Punters can “box” their selections, meaning they can finish in any order but that will mean the bet will cost more to place as all of the different combinations need to be covered.
The Trifecta is one of the more popular exotic bet types as the dividends usually pay very well and give the punter a chance for a big collect.
First 4
We start to get into the very tricky exotics now. A First 4 bet is very similar to a Trifecta, but instead of picking the first 3 across the line the punter must select the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th runners to cross the line in correct order. Like the Trifecta you can box your runners to finish in any order but with even more different combinations to cover it can get quite expensive to cover them all. Some punters will “Flexi” bet these bigger exotics, meaning they will bet a certain amount and be given a smaller percentage of the dividend. Given that the dividends are very large with these bet types you can take a smaller percentage of the dividend and get a big payout.
Quadrella
Arguably the most popular of all the exotics, the Quadrella bet (or Quaddie) requires the punter to select the winner of 4 nominated races at that meeting. This is both a good way for punters to try to land a big dividend and provide an interest in 4 races across the day. Punters will generally pick multiple runners per race and the bet cost will be all the different combinations per race multiplied together.
Take the BEST PRICE Available
When betting it is extremely important to ensure you always take the best price available. This means having numerous accounts with all of the major bookmakers so that you can always take those top odds, no matter where they are at. Too many punters put all of their funds into one bookmaker and simply take the odds they have on offer. Being able to shop around the best odds for every runner at multiple bookmakers significantly reduces the market percentage you are effectively betting into, making winning long term easier.
It may not seem like there is much difference between taking $2.30 and $2.40 about a runner and some people simply can’t be bothered funding another account just to take that 10c better price, but over your betting career that difference can be huge and could be the difference between a handsome profit and going bankrupt.
The best and easiest way to make sure you are getting the best odds is by using an odds comparison site or software such as Dynamic Odds. Programs like this enable you to get a live feed of all of the bookies odds on every race in one single location and highlight where the best odds are. You can also login to your betting accounts through most of these sites and easily place your bets all from the one location, making placing your bets faster and simpler.
Fixed Odds or Tote Betting?
There are 2 ways to place your bets when having a punt on the races; Fixed Odds betting and Tote Betting.
Tote betting is a betting system where all punters bets on a particular bet type are pooled together and the “house” takes a cut of pool. The dividends are then calculated by dividing the number of winning bets by the total amount of money in the pool. It is important to remember though that although approximate dividends are displayed prior to the race, that they will continue to fluctuate as more money is bet into the pool and you won’t know what your official dividend actually is until after the race has been run. This is not great for a punter looking to take their betting seriously because you have no way of discerning whether a bet is value or not if you do not know what odds you are getting.
Fixed Odds betting by contrast is entirely different. This is a form of betting where the punter knows exactly what their odds are as the bet is locked in at the price they take when they place their bet. Fixed odds markets are set up by bookmakers giving an opening price on what they believe the odds on each runner should be and as money comes for different runners bookies will fluctuate their odds to try to even out their books. However unlike Tote betting where everyone gets the same odds declared at the end of the race, punters who bet fixed odds get the price the runner was when they backed it. Fixed odds betting is more risky for the bookie than Tote betting as there is no built in edge to be guaranteed no matter the result.
Generally speaking most new punters to racing will place their bets through the tote as it is the most familiar avenue. But if you want to be a successful horse racing punter it should be avoided as you can only be successful by identifying value in the market, and if you don’t know what odds you are taking that is impossible to calculate. While taking top tote products offered by the bookies can have its advantages at time, the majority of your bets should be placed through the Fixed Odds markets of the bookmakers and betfair.
Betting Multiple Runners
Most punters out there will stick to just betting on the one runner per race. They will find their top pick for that race and only back that one horse. Because there can only be one winner of each race, so why bet on more than one? Right? Unfortunately this approach is not very sound as the idea of betting is not just to find the winner of each race, but to find the runners that represent the best value and a better chance of winning than the odds suggest. This is what correlates into long term profits, which is the goal.
Given that in any one race you might have multiple runners representing value in the market, the best strategy is to bet on all of those runners. So long as you know how to stake your bets accordingly this is the best approach to betting on a race, and a strategy that all professional punters out there use. Another benefit that comes with betting multiple runners per race is that you increase the probability of you winning on that race and decrease the likelihood of you experiencing an extended run of outs, as can happen with horse racing betting when you are betting on runners at larger odds.
Keep Track of Your Bets
To help improve your betting it is strongly recommended that you keep track of all of your bets in a program such as excel or whatever you have available. Keeping a record of all of your bets will help you as a punter in knowing where exactly you are winning or losing and find out what is working for you. Sometimes people will overestimate their abilities in certain areas and have false assumptions that aren’t correct so it’s good to have a definitive log to know exactly how well you are traveling and not relying just on gut feel. You should find this will also help you with your bankroll management as you have a more structured and business like approach to your betting.
As you get more familiar with record keeping you can get further and further detailed about what you keep track of. Such as what states you are most profitable in, what tracks you do best and worst at, whether you have better results on good or wet tracks etc.
Once you have established which types of bets are producing the most profit you can focus your wagering on those areas of success.
Managing Your Money
It is impossible to be a successful horse racing punter, or any type of punter for that matter, without an adequate money management plan.
Before you even begin your road to betting on horse racing you must establish a bankroll. There are any number of staking plans out there that you can put into practice, but without a bankroll they are all useless.
A bankroll is essentially just a pool of your total betting funds. A lot of punters will just reload their betting accounts when they run out of money, but if you want to be successful this is not a good strategy. A bankroll is a necessity but something that most average punters ignore.
Figuring out what size bankroll to use can also be a difficult task. Largely it will depend on how much you feel comfortable betting per race. Most bets you place will be in the 1-2% of your total bankroll range, so if you have a bankroll of $2,000 you can expect most of your bets to be $20-40. A reasonable rule of thumb for beginners is to have a bankroll 100x the value of your average bet size. The need for this is so that you can ride out any big run of outs which are inevitable in betting and not go broke because of them. Even if you are a great handicapper, if you over bet your selections you will almost certainly go broke at some stage due to variance.
There are a number of staking plans out there to use once you have got your bankroll sorted. While there is no one correct answer to what the best staking plan is to use, you should read up about them and come up with something that suits your personal needs.
Be Selective
With hundreds of races on every week there is no need to try to get involved with every race. One of the advantages the punter has over the bookies is that while the bookies have to put up odds on every race, the punter can be more selective and only bet on the markets where they believe they have an edge. It is important not to throw away this advantage by trying to force bets on races that you don’t need them.
Infact most races will provide poor betting opportunities for the punter, so it’s important to ignore those races. Successful punters will only get involved when the odds are in their favour. This is a reason why most punters who go to the track to punt end up losing at the end of the day. They are there for the entertainment of the day and will generally bet on every race on the card. Stick to where the odds are in your favour and you will go along way to making a long term profit.
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The Battling Punter 